Churchill Downs is a unique course that many handicappers believe has a post bias. New Kentucky Derby online betting trends also have a bias. Some handicappers believe that the inside post puts a horse at a distinct disadvantage. Let’s look a bit more closely at the previous winners of this race to see if we can come up with a determination on post position bias at the Kentucky Derby.
Post Positions 1-4
There have been 20 horses to win from post positions 1-4 in the 146-year history of the Kentucky Derby. The last horse to from this range of post positions was Super Saver in 2010.
Post positions 5-9
There have been 31 winners from post positions 5-9 at the Kentucky Derby. It should be noted that the 5 post has given us 10 winners. The last winner of the Kentucky Derby to break from this range of positions was Justify in 2018.
Post positions 10-14
There have been 21 winners from post positions 10-14 at the Kentucky Derby. The 11 post has been relatively ice cold only producing 2 winners. The most recent winner of the Kentucky Derby from this range of post positions was Nyquist in 2016.
List of New Kentucky Derby Online Betting Sites
Post positions 15-20
It should be noted that when the Kentucky Derby began including 20 horses in their fields, they started using an auxiliary gate for posts 16-20 that attached a few extra stalls to the main gate. In Kentucky Derby 146, this marks the first year that they will no longer use the auxiliary gate.
There have been 13 winners of the Kentucky Derby breaking from these posts including last year’s controversial winner Country House. It should also be noted that gate 17 must be unlucky because this gate has never produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby throughout the events 145+ year history.
What can we draw from the post position data at the Kentucky Derby? It seems like post positions 5-9 have been the sweet spot over the past few years producing the most winners while the outside gates have produced less winners over the years.